U.S. Withdrawal Plans for Iraq

Daily News Article — Posted on October 25, 2011

(by Sam Dagher, The Wall Street Journal, WSJ.com) BAGHDAD—President Barack Obama’s announcement that all U.S. combat troops will leave Iraq by the end of the year has provoked diametrically opposed reaction among the political factions of the Iraqi government, reflecting deep divisions over the country’s future at a tumultuous period for the entire region.

Iranian-backed Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr warned Sunday that his militiamen would target any U.S. attempt to leave a large diplomatic and security presence in Baghdad.

Iranian-backed Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who controls a sizable bloc in [Iraq’s] Parliament and half a dozen ministries in the current government, issued a [new] threat against the U.S. on Sunday, warning Washington that his militiamen would target [what he thinks is an] oversized presence at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad [which he said is] designed [to] retain influence in Iraq.

“Look at this farce, which I think fools no one,” he said in a statement posted on the website of his political movement. “We are awaiting full [U.S.] withdrawal, which will come as a result of the efforts and strength of [my] resistance fighters.”

This came after the same website posted a photograph of Mr. Sadr in military fatigues with a rifle propped on a desk. The image was accompanied by a document in which he responds to a follower’s [question] about a possible increase in U.S. personnel at the embassy in Baghdad.

“They are all occupiers and must be resisted after the end of the [withdrawal] period,” wrote Mr. Sadr, who has been among the most vociferous opponents of U.S. presence in Iraq.

A senior member of Mr. Sadr’s parliamentary bloc supported Mr. Sadr’s stance.

“His eminence sayid [honorific] Moqtada al-Sadr paused military and jihadist operations so that we do not become a reason for their stay and we have allowed them to depart smoothly,” said Baha’a al-Araji.

“But if they end up having it their way with the presence of thousands of diplomats and thousands more to protect them, then it’s a second occupation and we will return with a vengeance.”

Washington has repeatedly accused Iran of arming and bankrolling militia leaders like Mr. Sadr.

Mr. Obama said Friday that the estimated 40,000 U.S. soldiers left in Iraq would return home by the end of the year after the failure of protracted negotiations with the Iraqi government to amend a Status of Forces Agreement signed by both sides in 2008. [The president also said that we will] keep a small contingent of combat troops in the country beyond Dec. 31.

White House officials have said that the U.S. will maintain between 4,000 and 5,000 security contractors in Iraq to protect American diplomats and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also left the door open to the possibility that some American soldiers could return to Iraq after the withdrawal of combat troops to provide training, especially to the country’s air force, which agreed recently to purchase 18 F-16 fighter jets from the U.S.

But even achieving this may prove to be a challenge for the Obama administration.

In a press conference on Saturday Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who owes his second term in office largely to the backing of Mr. Sadr after last year’s deadlocked election, sought to project himself as a strong leader who overcame U.S. pressure to keep some troops in Iraq with full immunity from Iraqi law. Mr. Maliki said it was the immunity issue that scuttled a deal, and that any U.S. trainers left in Iraq beyond Dec. 31 would not enjoy immunity.

“This is a huge victory and a massive success for Iraq and its diplomacy and its will and the will of its patriotic political forces,” he said.

Mr. Maliki, however, said he was committed to forging a special long-term relationship with the U.S. and tried to ease concerns that Baghdad would…move into Iran’s orbit of influence after the full withdrawal of American forces. “We speak about our interest as Iraqis first and we do not speak about the interest of others,” he said, without naming Iran.

[Secretary] Panetta…played down the risk Iran-backed militia will pose to Iraq after U.S. troops fully withdraw. “Iraq itself has developed an effective force to be able to deal with those threats,” Mr. Panetta told reporters Sunday. “What we’ve seen in the past, when we’ve had concerns about what Iran was doing, was that Iraq itself conducted operations against those Shiite extremist groups… And we thought they did a great job, and that they’ll continue to do that.”

Mr. Panetta said the U.S. has sufficient forces in the region to keep Iran in check. “We’re going to maintain, as we do now, a significant force in that region of the world,” Mr. Panetta said.

He said the U.S. has about 23,000 in Kuwait alone, and about 100,000 in Afghanistan. “So we will always have a force that will be present and that will deal with any threats,” Mr. Panetta said.

But Iraq’s Kurds, who run their own semiautonomous region in the north and are a key partner in the coalition government in Baghdad headed by Mr. Maliki, are sounding alarm bells over the upcoming U.S. military withdrawal.

“There are many problems and lack of trust among Iraq’s political forces and the absence of trust could lead to a political implosion which translates into violence,” said Fuad Hussein, spokesman for the president of the Kurdistan regional government Masoud Barzani. “The American side has played the role of mediator.”

—Adam Entous in Bali, Indonesia and Ali A. Nabhan in Baghdad contributed to this article.

Background

MUQTADA AL-SADR:

Muqtada al-Sadr gained popularity [among Shi'a Muslims] in Iraq following the toppling of the Saddam government by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Al-Sadr has on occasion stated that he wishes to create an "Islamic democracy."
Al-Sadr commands strong support (especially in the Sadr City district in Baghdad, formerly named Saddam City but renamed after his father).
After the fall of the Saddam government in 2003, Muqtada al-Sadr organized thousands of his supporters into a political movement, which includes a military wing known as the Jaysh al-Mahdi or Mahdi Army). The name refers to the Mahdi, a long-since disappeared Imam who is believed by Shi'a Muslims to be due to reappear when the end of time approaches.
This group has periodically engaged in violent conflict with U.S. and other Coalition forces...
His strongest support comes from the class of dispossessed Shi‘a, like in the Sadr City area of Baghdad.
Many Iraqi supporters see in him a symbol of resistance to foreign occupation. Naomi Klein, writing in the Nation, has called al-Sadr and his supporters "the single greatest threat to U.S. military and economic control of Iraq." (from the wikipedia entry on al Sadr)